The Nigeria oil and gas market is expected to grow at a CAGR of less than 5% during the forecast period of 2020 – 2025. Major factors driving the market are the increasing investments in the upstream and downstream sectors of the oil & gas industry. Oil and gas production had been hampered in Nigeria in the past few years, due to the attack on oil and gas infrastructure by militants. Further, oil theft has been one of the major issues faced by the oil & gas market in Nigeria, which resulted in huge losses to operating companies in the country.
- Nigeria's offshore oil and gas industry continues to expand, albeit not very fast, opening more market opportunities. The growth of Nigeria's offshore exploration and production activities has been mainly driven by the efforts of governments in their region
- Lack of infrastructure, uncertainties in regulations, and security concerns have led Nigeria to underutilize its refining capacities, thereby pushing the country to become a net importer of refined petroleum products. However, Nigeria is on the edge of altering refined products’ supply dynamics in the region with the help of the upcoming Dangote Refinery and is expected to become the regional refining hub in the coming years.
- Given the country’s huge gas reserve and its advantage as a clean fuel, gas has already witnessed a massive surge in its domestic consumption in the recent years. Further, the country is steadily moving away from oil and exploring different ways to replace the oil consumption with gas in power as well as the transportation sector. The shift to gas is also supported by the fact that major oil reserves are likely to get dry in coming three to four decades. Hence, the oil market is considered to be one of the most vulnerable markets where natural gas has the highest potential to penetrate. Moreover, gas production has become a major focus for the oil & gas companies, in response to strong investment in gas-to-power projects, across the region.
Key Market Trends
Offshore Segment to be Fastest Growing Market
- Nigeria's offshore oil and gas industry continues to expand, albeit not very fast, opening up more market opportunities. The growth of Nigeria's offshore exploration and production activities has been mainly driven by the efforts of governments in their region, such as providing key incentives and supporting policies to unlock the investment opportunity, as well as a growing list of international oil and gas companies interested in exploring alternative fields to replace the maturing offshore producing sites.
- The China National Offshore Oil Corporation has mobilized a USD 3 billion investment, in addition to the USD 14 billion already spent on its existing oil and gas operations in the West African country. A large share of this investment goes into the operations in Nigeria. One of the most ambitious ultra-deep offshore projects is the Egina oil field in water depths of between 1,400 and 1,700 meters. Total projected that the oil field is expected to peak at 200,000 barrels/day.
- Further, since 2008, the Nigerian government has been trying to pass the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB). The country lost billion dollars of investments due to the failure to pass the bill. One section of the bill was finally passed in 2018, as the Petroleum Industry Governance Bill (PIGB). Under this, the oil sector will be restructured, including the national oil company, the oil and gas regulator, the Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR), and the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), which will become the National Petroleum Company (NPC), a fully commercial integrated entity. This reform is expected to drive the Nigerian offshore oil and gas upstream market.
- Therefore, due to above mentioned factors the offshore segment is expected to be the fastest growing segment.
Increasing Investments to Maintain the Country’s Production
- Nigeria is one of the largest and oldest oil producers in Africa. The oil and gas sector is one of the most important sectors in the country’s economy, accounting for more than 90% of the country’s exports and 80% of the Federal Government’s revenue.
- As of 2018, Nigeria has the largest oil and gas reserves in the African region, with around 37 billion barrels of oil and 47.2 billion cubic meter (bcm) of gas. With a production of 2.05 million barrels per day in 2018, which is approximately more than 20% of the total production in Africa, Nigeria continues to dominate African oil production.
- The country's economy was hit hard by the global commodity price downswing in 2014. Investment in the Nigerian upstream oil and gas sector declined by 13% annually, during 2015-2017, due to the downturn in the crude oil price. The decline in spending was largest in 2016, driven by severe disruptions on major oilfields. Oil and condensate production recovered in 2017, and was returned to remain at the level of more than 2 million bbl/d in 2018.
- The drilling activity in the country is ramping up, and is expected to continue on account of current and upcoming projects. However, production is not expected to ramp up in the coming years, as the new projects that are expected to come online may be able to offset the declining volume from brownfields, keeping the oil supply stable, provided the political situation does not exacerbate, leading to renewed supply disruption.
- Development of ultra-deepwater Egina oilfield by Total is one of the key projects, which started production in the first week of 2019. The Egina field may significantly boost the production and cash flow, in 2019, and continue onward. Further, NNPC (Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation) has signed an agreement for seven Critical Gas Development Projects, to deliver around 3.4 bcf of gas per day, in order to bridge the medium-term supply gap, by 2020, on an accelerated basis.
The Nigeria oil & gas market is moderately consolidated with top 5-6 players accounting for the majority of the share. Some of the major players include Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), Royal Dutch Shell PLC, Total SA, Chevron Corporation, and Exxon Mobil Corporation.
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