The market for solar photovoltaic (PV) in Mexico is expected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 8.90% during the forecast period of 2020 – 2025. Factors such as, the extension of a simple permit procedure for Solar PV projects between 500 kW to 2 MW in size under net metering and the government initiatives to increase and promot the solar PV market in the country are attributed to driving the demand for solar PV in Mexico. In addition, the declining costs of solar technologies are becoming competitive with fossil fuel sources, and additional subsidies on solar systems are driving the solar PV market further. On the other hand, in the absence of any new initiatives, limited land, factors such as cancellation of the fourth auction round by the new government, and an underdeveloped power grid of Mexico are expected to hinder the growth of the solar PV market in the coming years..
- Utility-scale is expected to account for the largest share in the Mexican solar PV market by deployment owing to the higher investments and larger installed capacity.
- In Mexico, the solar financing wave is being fueled in large part by Mexico’s renewable energy goals, which are for 35% by 2024 and 50% by 2050. Such ambitious goals are likely to open up new stream of investments in the Mexican solar market during the forecast period.
- Increasing solar energy installations, owing to the projects announced in the LTAs during 2015-2018, increasing demand for decentralized solar energy systems, and the ambitious renewable energy targets are expected to drive the solar PV market in Mexico during the forecast period.
Key Market Trends
Increasing Deployment in Utility-scale Increasing
- Solar energy has established itself as one of the renewable energies with the largest presence in Mexico. This can be demonstrated by the presence of 39 utility-scale solar parks in commercial operation in 11 states of the country as of 2018, with an aggregate installed capacity of 2.7 GW and direct investment of over USD 6.2 billion.
- The solar PV market reached the GW scale mark in 2018 for the first time with 2.7 GW installed in the same year. With this installation, the total installed solar PV capacity in Mexico reached 3.075 GW. Adding to this, on June 2019, the cumulative installed PV capacity increased by 32% and reached 4.057 GW. Also, from December 2018 to mid 2019, the number of large-scale solar parks reached 44, operating in 14 states, with an installed capacity of 3.36 GW.
- Mexico is dedicated to clean energy, plans to source almost 35% of its energy from renewable sources by 2024. In order to accomplish this target, the country has been implementing new utility-scale projects. The country has been steadily adding capacity to the Villanueva Solar Park in Coahuila, which has an output of 754 MW per year, as of 2018.
- In May 2019, Spanish company Elmya completed the construction of the Aura Solar III PV plant for the Mexican developer Gauss Energia. Located in the town of La Paz, in Baja California Sur, the Aura Solar III plant has a generation capacity of 32 MW and includes a lithium-ion battery storage system with a capacity of 10.5 MW/7.0 MWh
- The expansion of Mexico’s utility-scale solar power capacity is expected to be driven mainly by the projects that have won contracts in the clean energy auctions and the increasing competitiveness of solar power, as costs fall.
New Solar PV Auctions to Drive the Market
- The energy reform, which occurred in Mexico in the last few years, has made the country a very attractive market for solar energy. The country had around 43 large scale solar parks in operation, as of 2019, with an solar PV installed capacity of 4,426 MW and direct investments of USD 6.3 billion. As a result of this, in terms of annual solar PV installations, Mexico reached the first position in Latin America and seventh position, worldwide.
- As of June 2019, according to the Mexican Association of Solar Energy (ASOLMEX), the cumulative installed capacity of solar PV in Mexico reached 4,057 MW, increasing at a growth rate of 32% from 3,075 MW on December 2018.
- A majority of these solar energy projects are established as a part of the long-term energy auctions held in 2015, 2016, and 2017. Among the projects announced, as a part of these long-term energy sector auctions, solar energy projects accounted for the major share.
- Three long-term energy auctions were conducted from 2015-2018 each for supply of 5,402,881 MWh of electricity per year, 1,853 MW and 5,492,575 MWh per year respectively.
- Hence, the solar power projects announced as a part of the first three long-term energy auctions are expected to drive the market studied, during the forecast period.
The solar photovoltaic (PV) market of Mexico is fragmented. The key players in this market include Enel SpA, Engie SA, Canadian Solar Inc., Risen Energy Co. Ltd and Hanwha Q Cells Co. Ltd.
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