The Mexican oil and gas downstream market is expected to register a CAGR of less than 1.43% during the forecast period of 2020 – 2025. Factors, such as increasing demand for natural gas and rising investment in refineries and LNG Terminals, are expected to boost the growth in the Mexican oil and gas downstream market during the forecast period. However, decreasing the production of oil and gas in the country remains a cause of concern for the investors in the oil and gas sector.
- In 2019, the refineries in Mexico were under stress because the Mexico oil that is produced (Maya heavy crude) is of heavier quality which cannot be processed by the old Mexican refineries, but new projects are in the pipeline which can handle the locally produced oil, and therefore, growth is expected to take place.
- Sizeable crude oil discoveries have been made, in 2019, in southeastern Mexico that is expected to yield around 500 million barrels of crude oil. This could act as an opportunity for the new refineries that are expected to process the heavy crude oil.
- The production of oil and gas in the country is reducing and is expected to act as a restrain for the market. The reduction in the production is expected to make the country more dependent on the imports as the consumption of natural gas is expected to increase in the forecast period.
Key Market Trends
Oil Refining Capacity to Witness Growth
- In Mexico, the capacity refineries had increased to 1,546 thousand barrels daily (kb/d) in 2018 from 1,522 kb/d in 2015. The refinery throughput decreased by 20.6% to 609 kb/d in 2018 from 767 kb/d, in 2017.
- In 2019, a USD 8 billion refinery is being planned in Tabasco and is one of the flagship infrastructures projects of President Andres Obrador, who wishes to make Mexico more self-sufficient and reduce gasoline imports. The refinery is expected to process 340,000 barrels per day of Maya heavy crude and is expected to be completed by 2022.
- In 2018, Cadereyta Refinery, in Nuevo Leon is the second-largest refinery in the country with a refining capacity of 217,000 barrels per day. It is owned by Petróleos Mexicanos.
- Mexico's refining capacity is expected to grow slightly in the forecast period due to the construction and expansion of refineries. Increase in consumption of natural gas is also expected to boost the growth in the market
Decreasing Oil and Gas Production to Restrain the Market
- The oil and gas fields in the country have reached a level of maturity, and therefore, started to produce less oil and gas. However, gas consumption has been following an increasing curve, which may be correlated to the shift toward increasing use of natural gas in the country.
- Natural gas imported by Mexico grew by 0.3%, year on year, to 6.9 million ton of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2018 from 6.8 Mtoe, in 2015 primarily due to an increase in demand for natural gas in the country.
- In Mexico, natural gas production decreased by 2.4% to 32.1 million ton of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2018 from 32.9 Mtoe in 2017. Consumption of natural gas increases, by 3.6%, to 77.0 million ton of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2018 from 74.3 Mtoe in 2017. Increasing demand for gas are boosting the growth in the market.
- Oil consumption reduced 3.5% to 82.8 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2018 from 85.8 Mtoe, in 2017. The oil consumption is declining in the 2012 - 2018 period. Oil production decreased, by 6.6%, to 102.3, in 2018 from 109.5, in 2017.
- Hence, Mexico oil and gas are expected to witness growth in the forecast period due to the new upcoming project. However, decrease in the production of oil and gas is expected to restrain the market.
The Mexican oil and gas downstream market is consolidated. The major companies include Petróleos Mexicanos, Samsung Engineering Co. Ltd, Fluor Corporation, Grupo Idesa SA de CV, and Braskem SA.
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