Australia’s rooftop solar PV installed capacity was over 9.48 GW in 2019. More than 30,000 rooftop installations were registered in March 2020, for a total of close to 250 MW of capacity. The Australia rooftop solar market is expected to grow at a CAGR of more than 10% over the forecast period. Australia’s rooftop solar uptake is going from strength to strength driven by high electricity prices and falling costs of solar PV and associated equipment. However, the high cost of storage along with competition from alternative clean energy sources and problems associated with solar power integration to the grid is expected to hinder the growth of the market studied.
- The residential segment is expected to dominate the Australia rooftop solar market during the forecast period.
- Australia is expected to have the highest share of solar power at nearly 40% in the electricity grids by 2050, which is expected to provide opportunities in the Australia solar rooftop market in the future.
- The falling cost of solar PV modules is expected to drive the Australia rooftop solar market over the forecast period.
Key Market Trends
Residential Segment to Dominate the Market
- Australia is one of the leading countries in solar PV, driven primarily by household rooftop installations. More than 22% of homes in Australia used rooftop solar PV to generate 12269 GWh of power in 2019. As of 31 May 2020, more than 2.43 million small-scale rooftop solar power systems have been installed across Australia.
- Electricity production from solar PV has zero greenhouse emissions, which in turn is likely to drive the demand for solar rooftops in residential segments.
- Around half of the countries have the unused potential for rooftop solar is in residential zones. It is estimated that only around one-fifth of all residential buildings have installed a rooftop solar system.
- The eastern states in the country account for around 70% of the total installed capacity. Queensland, New South Wales, South Australia, and Western Australia are the leaders in rooftop solar installation. Around 1-in-3 of all houses in South Australia and Queensland have a solar PV installation.
- The number of small-scale solar installations in 2019 was the highest since 2012 as every state saw a significant increase in installations compared to 2018. New South Wales led the way with 78,931 installations, closely followed by Queensland with 73,726 and Victoria with 59,610.
- While the majority of PV installations in Australia are residential, rooftop solar on commercial buildings is on growth stage. Hence, residential segment is expected to dominate in the market.
Declining Costs of Solar PV to Drive the Market
- Declining solar PV cost with the increasing electricity cost in the country is forecast to offer a huge potential opportunity for demand growth during the forecast period. Globally the average solar PV cost has reached USD 1210 per kW in 2018 from USD 4621 per kW in 2010.
- The year 2019 was a record-setting year for solar power in Australia owing to the falling cost of solar PV. Australia’s solar energy installed capacity was 13.25 GW in 2019 holding more than 50% rise in installed capacity from the previous year.
- Another cost-effective advantage of solar PV in electricity generation is that the excess electricity produced from solar PV can be directed into the grid, delivering a feed-in payment, or it can be stored in a rechargeable battery for later use.
- The revenues generated or savings occur in electricity costs by selling PV electricity are almost equal to or higher than the long term cost incurred during financing and installing a PV system. Thus, making the technology more beneficial to the end-users on account of cost-saving.
- Furthermore, the country offers a solar credit scheme. Under this initiative, every megawatt hour of qualifying energy generation is eligible for large and small-scale technology certificates (LTCs & STCs). They are used as a discount voucher on the cost of installing the solar system. Hence, declined cost of installing solar PV is likely to drive the market.
The Australia rooftop solar market is fragmented. Some of the major players in the market include Energy Matters Pty Ltd, GEM Energy Inc., Tindo Solar Pty Ltd, Trina Solar Limited, and Risen Energy Co., Ltd.
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