The market for ASEAN lubricants is expected to grow at a CAGR of more than 3% during the forecast period. Increasing usage for transportation and other various factors are driving the market growth. The Impact of COVID-19 and other reasons are expected to hinder the market growth.
Key Market Trends
Increasing Demand from Automobiles
- ASEAN countries are one of the fastest developing countries in the world. The growing industrial establishments, automobiles, marine, and other transportation activities in these countries has been increasing the demand for lubricants.
- In terms of market size, Indonesia is the biggest car market in both the ASEAN and Southeast Asia regions. The country accounts for about 1/3rd of the total annual car sales in ASEAN region, followed by Thailand. The growing demand for the motorcycle industry is expected to boost the demand for lubricants in the country.
- Although the automobile sector has been facing a crisis in recent times, the production of automobiles in the Philippines has not witnessed any decline in 2019. This in turn led to a positive the demand forautomobiles lubricants in the country.
- According to the Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA), the total production of motor vehicles in Malaysia in 2019 accounted for 604,287 units, consisting of 550,179 units of passenger vehicles and 54,108 units of commercial vehicles which are more than the produced vehicles in 2018.
- The positive growth rates of the overall vehicles in 2019 have boosted the consumption of automotive lubricants in Malaysia.
- Vietnam has one of the fastest-growing automotive markets in Southeast Asia (SEA), with a 5.5% of automobile production growth been witnessed in 2019. Powered with the booming automotive industry, the demand for lubricants is expected to increase drastically during the forecast period.
- The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in lockdown of economic and industrial activities across the ASEAN countries. Due to this, the lubricant and automobiles production units have been stopped in 2020. This led to a slowdown in the usage and demand for lubricants in the short term.
Indonesia to Dominate the Market
- Automotive and other transportation media, such as aircraft and marine, are the largest markets for lubricants in 2019 in Indonesia. Shell, Pertamina, Castrol, Caltex, and ExxonMobil are some of the major players in Indonesia.
- The Indonesian government has high hopes for the domestically-manufactured car exports, especially since the implementation of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), which turns the ASEAN region into one single market and production area.
- The domestically-manufactured cars that are already in the majorly exported list include Toyota’s Avanza and Fortuner, the Nissan Grand Livina, the Honda Freed, etc
- The most important export markets for Indonesia include Japan, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Thailand, and the Philippines.
- Moreover, aviation is one of the fastest-growing segments in Indonesia. According to the Indonesia National Air Carriers Association, the aviation industry grew by 10 % in 2019. This has been one of the driving factors for the lubricants market in Indonesia in recent times.
- Also, the marine industry is one of the fastest-growing sectors in Indonesia. According to the South East Asia Iron and Steel Institute (SEAISI), the demand for ships in Indonesia has increased pointedly to at least double in volume compared to the last 4-5 years for various purposes.
- The outbreak of COVID-19 has affected the economy at present, as various production plants such as automobiles, aviation, marine, and other units have been stopped due to lockdown. So, the consumption of lubricants is expected to remain less in 2020.
- It is expected that post-COVID factors can lead to recovey of construction, automobiles, and other end-user industries which can in turn increase the demand for lubricants during the forecast period.
The ASEAN lubricant market is consolidated in nature with very few major players occupying a large portion of the market. Some of the major companies are Castrol (BP plc), Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Exxon Mobil, Pertamina, and Caltex (Chevron Corporation), among others.
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