The market for Kenya lubricants is expected to grow at a CAGR of more than 3% during the forecast period. Increasing demand from industrial and construction segments and other factors are driving the market growth. The Impact of COVID-19 and other reasons are expected to hinder the market growth.
Key Market Trends
Power generation Witnessing Fast Growths
- Eastern African countries such as Kenya are expanding rapidly in terms of industries, urbanization, and power generation capabilities.
- Power generation is among the fastest-growing end-user industries for the consumption of lubricants. Consumption of electricity from the past few years has been gradually increasing due to the growth of various industries in Kenya in recent times. The current electricity demand is 2,315 MW and is projected to grow to 2,600-3600 MW in near future.
- Kenya's government has been also encouraging renewable energy sources to produce electricity and this trend has witnessed major progress in recent times. Private investments on these projects are the main driving factors to increases the demand for lubricants from the power generation sector.
- The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the lockdown of various activities in Kenya. Due to this, the exports, different infrastructure projects, and industries have been stopped temporarily. This in turn has decreased the demand for lubricants in 2020.
Increasing Usage in Automotive and Other Transportation
- Due to the increase in urbanization in Kenya, the demand for automobiles has been growing. Although the sales of automobiles have declined in 2019, the demand for used cars has been increasing in recent times.
- Used cars accounted for over 80% of the total number of motor vehicles used in the country in 2019. However, the sale of new motor vehicles is expected to rise in the next ten years, owing to the rising economy and increasing local assembly of motor vehicles in Kenya.
- Isuzu motors acquired General Motors East Africa, in order to increase commercial vehicle production and sales in the Eastern African region.
- The automotive sector in Kenya is expected to expand at a consistent rate with around 5 million vehicles expected to be on the roads by 2030. The government of Kenya is in plans to boost the domestic assembly of motor vehicles by providing tax exemptions. This, in turn, is expected to boost the local vehicle assembly operations in Kenya in the coming years.
- The impact of COVID-19 has resulted in the lockdown which subsequently led to ceasing of all automobile production units and sales. This is estimated to lead to a slow growth of automobile sector in the short term.
- Increasing usage of second-hand cars, and government encouragement to the automotive sector are expected to drive the market for lubricants after the recovery from COVID-19, in the country.
The Kenya lubricant market is consolidated in nature with very few major players occupying a large portion of the market. Some of the major companies are Total Kenya, Vivo Energy (Shell), OLA Energy, Kenol Kobil, and National Oil Corporation of Kenya, among others.
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