The thermal power market in Middle-East and Africa is expected to grow at a CAGR of more than 3% during 2020 - 2025. Factors such as increasing population and power consumption are resulting in the growth of the power demand. With growing power demand, new thermal power projects being constructed, which, in turn, is driving the market. The presence of vast oil and gas reserves in the region is also expected to drive the thermal power. However, with the increasing share of renewables and the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, delay in multiple projects and a decline in power demand is expected for the short term, resulting in slow market growth.
- With the largest share in electricity generation, natural gas is leading the market. Due to the vast reserves of natural gas, the natural gas-based power generation is expected to continue its dominance during the forecast period.
- By 2050, the electricity demand of the Middle-East is expected to triple in comparison to 2018. Moreover, with a significant share in African countries without electricity, vast opportunities are anticipated in the future of the thermal power market.
- Saudi Arabia witnessed the highest power generation in 2019. With planned projects during the forecast period, the nation is expected to dominate the market.
Key Market Trends
Natural Gas-based Thermal Plants to Dominate the Market
- The rising power demand across different nations in the Middle-East and Africa and the availability of hydrocarbons for power generation is resulting in the dominance of gas for power generation during the forecast period.
- In 2019, Egypt signed a deal with ACWA to build a USD 23 billion natural gas-fired power plant with a capacity of 2250 MW. The plant is expected to be operational by 2023. This significant growth in thermal power generation is expected in the forecast period.
- In February 2020, Abu Dhabi Power Corporation (ADPower) and Japan-based Marubeni Corporation formed a consortium to develop the Fujairah F3 independent power producer (IPP) project, which will be the largest independent thermal power plant in the UAE.
- Sudan National Petroleum Corporation is planning for the construction of a thermal power plant with Norwegian company Monitor Power System with a cost of USD 800 million. According to the agreement, gas pipelines will be constructed to transfer gas to fuel a 460 MW thermal power station that to be built in West Kordofan state.
- Natural gas generated 1112 TWh of electricity in the region in 2019. With upcoming projects, the share of natural gas-based power generation is likely to grow during the forecast period.
Saudi Arabia to Dominate the Market
- Saudi Arabia is leading the entire Middle-East and Africa region in terms of electricity generation. The electricity generation has increased from 311 TWh in 2014 to 357 TWh in 2019.
- With increasing power demand and parallelly increasing investment in thermal energy sources, Saudi Arabia has several projects which are expected to be operational in the forecast period.
- In 2019, Fadhili gas-fired combined heat and power plant, a co-generation power plant, was completed in the Eastern Providence of the Kingdom near Fadhili (FGP), which has an installed capacity of 1507 megawatts.
- In 2019, Power China signed an engineering procurement construction contract with the Saudi Electricity Company for the natural gas-fired PP13 power plant. The project includes six gas turbines, six waste heat boilers, two steam turbines, and two air cooling islands. It has a generation capacity of 1,960 megawatts.
- Saudi Arabia is increasing power generation through both thermal and renewable sources. Owing to the significant dependency on fossil fuels and expected growth in the nuclear market also, the nation is expected to continue its dominance during the forecast period.
The Middle-East and Africa thermal power market is moderately fragmented. Some of the major players include Dubai Electricity and Water Authority, Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd, Siemens AG, Acwa Power Barka SAOG, and Saudi Electricity Company.
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