The Russian thermal power market is expected to grow at a CAGR of more than 1% in the forecast period of 2020 - 2025. With a growing population, the power demand is increasing tremendously in Russia. Adding to this, factors such as rapid urbanization, technical advancements, and industrialization is increasing the demand for electricity. On the other hand, the decommissioning of several nuclear and coal plants across the nation is restraining the growth of the market. Moreover, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the power demand has reduced in Russia significantly, restraining the growth further.
- Russia has vast reserves of natural gas. Moreover, natural gas holds the largest share in power generation and is expected to continue its dominance during the forecast period.
- Clean coal technology and upcoming natural gas-fired power plants are expected to create significant opportunities in Russia in the near future.
- Russia has several power plants and under construction and under the planning phase, which is likely to drive the thermal power in the nation significantly.
Key Market Trends
Natural Gas-Fired Power Generation is Expected to Dominate the Market
- The power generation mix is heavily skewed toward natural gas with a significant contribution because of cheaper domestic fuel availability and vast reserves present in Russia itself. Its share in the mix has increased over the years due to constraints in adding other conventional generation sources.
- In 2019, the Russian government approved the modernization of three-generation units, each with 150MW capacity at Krasnodar power plant. The units are scheduled to be commissioned in 2022-2024.
- Natural gas held a significant share of electricity generation in Russia. With 519 TWh of electricity in 2019, the share of natural gas is expected to grow in the forecast period.
- With advantages like low emissions in comparison to coal and fewer harms in comparison to nuclear, the market share of natural gas in power generation is likely to grow in the future.
Upcoming Thermal Power Projects to Drive the Market
- Power generation uses a variety of sources ranging from fossil fuels like coal, natural gas, and oil to renewable sources like wind and solar. The energy mix for electricity generation is dominated by fossil fuels, with the three constituting over 63% of the Russian energy mix.
- In 2019, RusHydro launched coal-fired power Sakhalinskaya GRES-2 on Sakhalin Island. The plant has a capacity of 120 MW and replaced Sakhalinskaya GRES, which was scheduled for decommissioning.
- As of 2019, Russia has four nuclear power reactors under construction, 24 reactors under planned, and 22 units under the proposed stage. In December 2019, Russia had officially commissioned the world’s first floating nuclear power plant (NPP)-Akademic Lomonosov, driving the thermal power market significantly.
- In 2019, nuclear generated 209 TWh of electricity. With the above-mentioned projects in Russia, the share is expected to grow further.
- Russia relies on foreign equipment and expertise to service its conventional power stations. With ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and due to travel restriction, halt or delay in the projects is expected for a short term.
Russian thermal power market is moderately consolidated. Some of the major companies include Unipro PJSC, Inter RAO YEES PAO, SUEK JSC, PJSC Gazprom, and Rosatom State Atomic Energy Corporation.
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