The market for oil and gas upstream in India is expected to record a CAGR of more than 1% during the forecast period of 2020 – 2025. Factors, such as increasing natural gas production and plans to improve oil production, are expected to increase the growth for the Indian oil and gas market during the forecast period. However, oil production has decreased slightly over the years from 2010 to 2019 due to technological constraints and poor reservoir performances.
- Offshore projects are expected to remain the most utilized of the deployment locations as they provide for cheaper access to the oil resources. The case becomes more prominent as most of the oil fields in India are located in the coastal regions.
- KG Basin has substantial potential in the gas hydrates sector, which may lead to a boom in the natural gas production and provide boost for the growth in the oil and gas upstream market. The viable production may also lead to an opportunity for the players in the sector.
- The increase in the oil consumption in the country has made India into one of the largest of crude oil and natural gas importers in the world. To reduce dependence on fossil fuel imports, the government is focusing toward increasing production of oil and gas in the country.
Key Market Trends
Offshore Production to Dominate the Market
- In 2018, offshore production made around 49.2% of the oil produced and 71.9% of the gas produced in India. India has 26 sedimentary basins, of which only seven have commercial production of oil and gas.
- Around 22,010 Million Metric Standard Cubic Meter per Day (MMSCM) of natural gas was produced from the offshore fields, in 2018, which decreased from 22,157, in 2017 and around 18,145 Thousand Metric Ton (TMT) of oil was generated from the offshore oilfields alone, in 2018 which fell about 1.35% from 18400 TMT.
- In 2019, Reliance Industries has closed its KG D-3 and KG D-6 offshore gas fields, in the Bay of Bengal. Reliance Industries are expected to start another gas field in 2020 and to be able to provide 1 billion cubic feet of gas at its full potential by 2022.
- The oil production market is expected to dominate the market due to its large share in the oil and gas business. Oil demand is also likely to remain higher than natural gas demand. However, the rate of growth in demand for natural gas is expected to be much higher, which is due to the government lead initiatives like Urja Ganga gas project.
- Hence, offshore oilfields are expected to dominate the market due to economically viable gas basins being concentrated in the water bodies of the exclusive economic zone of India.
Increase in Oil Consumption to Drive the Market
- Oil Consumption in the country increased by 5.3% to 239.1 Million tonnes oil equivalent, in 2018 from 227.1 Million tonnes oil equivalent, in 2017. The rapid increase in consumption is expected to be the most prominent driver in the forecast period.
- In 2018, Oil production became 35.68 MMT, which decreased from 36.01 MMT, in 2017. The decrease in production is consistent over the 2012 – 2018 period. Poor reservoir performance, high water cut, and human errors are the primary reason for the decline.
- Changes in the policies for exploration and production have led to some growth in the industry. Companies look prudent as changes may bring ease in the sector. In a significant overhaul of oil and gas exploration permits, the government decided, in 2019, not charge any share of profit on hydrocarbons produced from less explored areas as it looks to attract the elusive private and foreign investment to raise domestic output.
- In 2018, Cairn India produced 189,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day from its rigs in Rajasthan, India. Cairn India Operates around 25% of India’s crude oil production.
- Hence, oil consumption is expected drive the oil and gas market. Increase in investment in the sector is also expected to increase the growth in the industry.
The India oil and gas upstream market is consolidated. The major players include
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation, Reliance Industries Limited, Oil India Limited, Larsen & Toubro Limited, and BP PLC.
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